As promised in my last column, I wanted to share Lester Brown’s vision on the energy transition, from fossil fuel to renewables, specifically wind and solar. In his most recent book, The Great Transition, he does touch on geothermal and hydropower, but without question is decidedly focused on wind and solar. I will give you his view on each and his vision of the shift from coal and nuclear to renewables.

First, a quick tutorial on how we measure electricity; you’ll need it when I update you on the growth of renewables.

Electricity is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh). One kWh represents the amount of energy needed by a 1,000 watt device, like a microwave oven, to operate for one hour. Or, leaving a 100 watt light bulb on for 10 hours consumes one kilowatt (kWh) of energy.

One megawatt (MW) equals 1,000 kilowatts (kWh) equals 1,000,000 watts.  A typical coal plant is approximately 600 MW’s, or 600,000 kWh’s.

Got it? Now back to Lester Brown.

I was introduced to Lester in the early 90’s. I have heard him speak and watched him several times on television. I have talked about him countless times as he has been a mentor and influenced my thinking.  Several years ago I remember writing about his Eco-Economy and his concept of restructuring the economy with shifts in taxation and subsidy.  The most memorable idea was to understand the true cost of a product.  It isn’t just manufactured cost and raw material cost. His concept for true cost included the entire lifecycle of the product, the entire cause and effect. The example he used was smoking. Since we have proof that cigarette smoking causes cancer, we have to include the cost of treatment. Back in the 90s the total cost would have been about $10.00 per cigarette. Today, 20 years later, it might be $20.00 per cigarette. The process to obtain the additional charges would be assessed in the form of a health tax.  The tobacco company would finally be paying for what they have caused. I liken this to LCA (Life Cycle Assessment), which establishes your true carbon footprint. In a sense, this kind of eco-economy also covers the costs of byproduct, supporting the newest concept of sustainability, a circular economy. I know, I’m reaching, but my point is Lester was very much ahead of the crowd with his concept of “total cost.”

Lester believes that the worldwide transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy is under way.  His statistics support his theory.  I’ll enumerate below after you understand how he arrives at his conclusions.

I’ve written about the demise of the coal industry and the ecological and economic consequences. I neglected to mention nuclear energy and the fact that globally this energy source is also in significant decline.  If you go back to the 1950s, the US, and in particular, President Eisenhower, preached “Atoms for Peace.” By 1996, global nuclear energy had grown to 18% of electricity generation. By 2013 it was less than 11%, and today I believe it is no more than 8–9% of global generation. Construction costs have skyrocketed. Permitting has become very complex. Insurance costs alone have made new nuclear facilities impossible to justify, much less afford. In fact, operating costs have escalated to the point where economics are also impossible. Finally, the nail in the coffin on nuclear energy, at least in my mind, is waste. 

How in the world can we design for a circular economy if we don’t have a solution for waste? To be fair, Eisenhower and Stanton Avery weren’t concerned about end of life so I don’t want to sound critical.  Ike is one of the reasons I can write what I want, and Stan is one of the reasons I have a job. Hah. But, how can anyone in their right mind design without a solution for nuclear waste or justify a technology that has created Three Mile Island, Fukushima, and Chernobyl. I don’t see any poetic justice in either coal or nuclear energy.  The only justification is the Industrial Revolution demand for energy and our ignorance on what might and would occur in each case. 

Solar and wind are now changing our dependence on fossil energy, and the changes are moving at incredible speed. As Lester Brown reports in The Great Transition:

In April 1954, top scientists gathered in Washington, DC, to hear something new: voice and music broadcast by a solar-powered radio transmitter.  Scientists at Bell Labs in New Jersey were demonstrating their invention, the first practical solar cell, which was made of silicon. This breakthrough paved the way for the solar revolution taking place today on rooftops and in massive ground-mounted solar farms around the world.

Solar cells are also called solar photovoltaics, or PVs. Back in the 80s, there were three major players committed to the development of solar power via PV production:  the United States, Japan and Germany. As production and demand by these three increased, prices went down.  Prices decreased so much that worldwide production of solar went from 16,000 to 139,000 megawatts. Just to give you a sense of scale, that’s enough electricity to power every home in Germany, which has a population of 85 million. In the meantime, China and India have entered the market. This is a true game changer with China making almost two-thirds of the world’s PVs, more than the United States, Germany and Japan combined.

Let me close this column with a quick summary: “the sunlight striking the earth’s surface in just one hour delivers enough energy to power the world economy for one year.”  Think of that! The key is to harness this incredible resource. Utilities using fossil energy and conventional grids are no longer competitive. Solar technology is so cheap, that along with creative leasing schemes, the return on investment for residential installation is under two years. Clean air and cheaper electricity and as The Great Transition reminds us, for low income families, it means electricity in their homes for the very first time. Tune in for my next column, which will include an update on the “age of wind” and what, according to Lester Brown, the outlook is for fossil energy.

Another Letter from the Earth.




Calvin Frost is chairman of Channeled Resources Group, headquartered in Chicago, the parent company of Maratech International and GMC Coating. His email address is
cfrost@channeledresources.com.