Steve Katz10.09.20
Black Swan theory, as defined by Wikipedia, is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, and was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former Wall Street trader and risk analyst, to explain “the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.”
Taleb’s black swan refers to unexpected, major events that become historic – 9/11 and the 2008 stock market crash both qualify, according to Taleb. He has come forward recently to stress that the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan but should be considered a white swan – an event that has a major effect but is compatible with statistical properties.
I’m calling BS on that. In my mind, the 2020 coronavirus pandemic is most definitely a black swan. Who could have seen this coming? Yes, there are some doctors, scientists and even politicians who predicted the pandemic we find ourselves in, but to a layman like me, no way.
Something like a 9/11 occurring again, or a devastating natural disaster, or another economy-crippling stock market crash would not have shocked me like COVID-19 has. Maybe that’s because, in our lifetime, we’ve dealt with and overcome terrorism and financial hardship. But a global pandemic affecting virtually every nation and demographic on the planet? Nope. No way. Not a chance. Not with today’s modern medicine.
Opportunities knock
In the face of a significant crisis, there are two types of people: those whose jaw drops and absorb the news, and kind of waits to see how things play out before making any sort of move; and there are those who see dollar signs and opportunity and get right to work. The opportunists become active right away – brainstorming new business strategies, products and innovations that speak directly to adapting to the “new normal.”
The new normal. Now there’s a phrase that’s been beaten to death over the last several months, and with good cause. Life as we know it – for the foreseeable future – will involve masks, sanitization, social distancing, and anything relating to these topics as well as all things healthcare.
Many label converters I’ve spoken with since the outbreak have shared how their business is booming while lamenting how they would prefer the boom happening under less heartbreaking circumstances. For many label businesses, not just shifts, but even equipment has been added to meet exploding demand.
Distilleries and breweries have leveraged their equipment and supply chain assets to enter the hand sanitizer market. Makers of pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals have ramped up production of products that have immunity bolstering claims. These products all require labels. E-commerce for products of all types is booming. More labels (plus shipping labels!).
Intrepid converters are leveraging their equipment to make PPE and other products that are needed that address pandemic concerns.
New doors are being opened in all walks of life. Remote learning is now a part of the lexicon, and software platforms like Zoom are thriving. Zoom is going the way of Google and Xerox – people are “hopping on a Zoom” all day everyday.
While certain industries are being decimated – hospitality, travel, catering, movie theaters, performing arts, just to name a few, others are doing quite well.
Off-premise beer, wine and liquor retailers are enjoying increased sales. According to Business Valuation Resources (BVR), a provider of resources, community and thought leadership for business owners, executives and investors, beer category dollar sales in off-premise retailers exceeded $1 billion in four of the five weeks ending June 20.
As conditions related to COVID-19 improved in many areas, bars and restaurants began reopening. Despite the reopening, BVR reported that total alcohol sales rose 24.1% during the week ending June 2 and increased 26.3% during the COVID-19 time period versus a year ago, according to Nielsen. Beer sales increased 22.1%, wine sales rose 23.8%, and spirits sales grew 35.2% during the week of June 6 versus a year ago.
E-commerce continues to thrive. BVR reported the number of new online stores on Shopify globally rose 20% week over week for each of the last two weeks of March, according to Digital Commerce 360, reflecting an increase of retailers shifting business to the web when COVID-19 forced storefront closures. In particular, online pet food sales have shown very strong growth during the coronavirus pandemic, BVR says, pointing out that e-commerce brand Chewy reported net sales growth of 46.2% year-over-year during Q1 while also adding a record 1.6 million net active customers in the quarter.
These are just a handful of examples of businesses thriving in the face of a black swan. There are several others, and many can be directly linked to a need for more, new and different labels, stickers and pressure sensitive products.
Much the way suppliers to the label industry are adapting to meet the requirements of this new and different business climate, converters can do the same for their customers by suggesting products that their customers may not have realized they either want or need. For example, now is a great time for a label refresh, perhaps as a way to set a brand apart in terms of its health benefits. Pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cleaning and sanitizing products, food and beverage are just a few end use segments where brands might want to emphasize how their products can prevent or mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.
Labels can tell a brand owner’s story, and in the face of the pandemic, can also serve as way to highlight certain specific product aspects.
It’s not just product decoration that can drive a spike to a label business. New executive orders have emerged all over that limit the number of customers that can be inside of a store or restaurant. Schools, as they reopen, are enacting new rules doing the same – limiting building visitors and the number of students per class, or even allowed in restrooms and locker rooms at once. And of course, everywhere you go these days there are announcements and suggestions urging hand washing, social distancing and mask wearing.
Where I live in New Jersey, every storefront has signage posted that requires patrons to wear a mask upon entering. Adjustments have been made to many longstanding requirements. Signs now read, “No shirt, no shoes, NO MASK, no service.” And once you’ve gained entry into a place of business, or any public place for that matter, such as libraries and museums, there are markers everywhere reminding people to stay six feet apart, as well as indicators on the floor and walls measuring the six feet of distance and telling folks where to stand on line. Many of these reminders are printed on pressure sensitive materials that adhere to floors, doors and windows.
Suppliers are helping converters serve these new, niche markets for the new normal. Mactac has announced a new portfolio of interior floor graphic products available for the roll label market. The narrow web floor graphic products can be used for social distancing, safety signage, and more on a wide variety of indoor surfaces, such as standard tile, vinyl linoleum, terrazzo, ceramic tile, smooth sealed concrete and hardwood floors.
In announcing the new portfolio, Sara Damante, senior marketing manager, Mactac Performance Adhesives, said, “For 50 years Mactac has been at the forefront of pressure sensitive adhesive product development for wall, window, floor, and vehicle graphic applications in the wide-format graphics industry, and we are excited to bring our expertise and products to the roll label market,” she says. “Especially now, with the COVID-19 pandemic, we have come to rely on floor graphics for social distancing and other safety signage, and our narrow web format floor graphic products will give roll label customers new opportunities to be full-service providers for their customers.”
The situation is still fluid, and no one can be sure exactly when things will go back to the way they were. So, for now, companies of all types and sizes can benefit from a brainstorming session to see where they can create and grow new black swan markets and products.
Steve Katz is the former editor of Label & Narrow Web and is now a regular contributor. He is focused on helping companies in the label industry share their news and tell their stories. Follow him on twitter @LabelSteve.
Taleb’s black swan refers to unexpected, major events that become historic – 9/11 and the 2008 stock market crash both qualify, according to Taleb. He has come forward recently to stress that the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan but should be considered a white swan – an event that has a major effect but is compatible with statistical properties.
I’m calling BS on that. In my mind, the 2020 coronavirus pandemic is most definitely a black swan. Who could have seen this coming? Yes, there are some doctors, scientists and even politicians who predicted the pandemic we find ourselves in, but to a layman like me, no way.
Something like a 9/11 occurring again, or a devastating natural disaster, or another economy-crippling stock market crash would not have shocked me like COVID-19 has. Maybe that’s because, in our lifetime, we’ve dealt with and overcome terrorism and financial hardship. But a global pandemic affecting virtually every nation and demographic on the planet? Nope. No way. Not a chance. Not with today’s modern medicine.
Opportunities knock
In the face of a significant crisis, there are two types of people: those whose jaw drops and absorb the news, and kind of waits to see how things play out before making any sort of move; and there are those who see dollar signs and opportunity and get right to work. The opportunists become active right away – brainstorming new business strategies, products and innovations that speak directly to adapting to the “new normal.”
The new normal. Now there’s a phrase that’s been beaten to death over the last several months, and with good cause. Life as we know it – for the foreseeable future – will involve masks, sanitization, social distancing, and anything relating to these topics as well as all things healthcare.
Many label converters I’ve spoken with since the outbreak have shared how their business is booming while lamenting how they would prefer the boom happening under less heartbreaking circumstances. For many label businesses, not just shifts, but even equipment has been added to meet exploding demand.
Distilleries and breweries have leveraged their equipment and supply chain assets to enter the hand sanitizer market. Makers of pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals have ramped up production of products that have immunity bolstering claims. These products all require labels. E-commerce for products of all types is booming. More labels (plus shipping labels!).
Intrepid converters are leveraging their equipment to make PPE and other products that are needed that address pandemic concerns.
New doors are being opened in all walks of life. Remote learning is now a part of the lexicon, and software platforms like Zoom are thriving. Zoom is going the way of Google and Xerox – people are “hopping on a Zoom” all day everyday.
While certain industries are being decimated – hospitality, travel, catering, movie theaters, performing arts, just to name a few, others are doing quite well.
Off-premise beer, wine and liquor retailers are enjoying increased sales. According to Business Valuation Resources (BVR), a provider of resources, community and thought leadership for business owners, executives and investors, beer category dollar sales in off-premise retailers exceeded $1 billion in four of the five weeks ending June 20.
As conditions related to COVID-19 improved in many areas, bars and restaurants began reopening. Despite the reopening, BVR reported that total alcohol sales rose 24.1% during the week ending June 2 and increased 26.3% during the COVID-19 time period versus a year ago, according to Nielsen. Beer sales increased 22.1%, wine sales rose 23.8%, and spirits sales grew 35.2% during the week of June 6 versus a year ago.
E-commerce continues to thrive. BVR reported the number of new online stores on Shopify globally rose 20% week over week for each of the last two weeks of March, according to Digital Commerce 360, reflecting an increase of retailers shifting business to the web when COVID-19 forced storefront closures. In particular, online pet food sales have shown very strong growth during the coronavirus pandemic, BVR says, pointing out that e-commerce brand Chewy reported net sales growth of 46.2% year-over-year during Q1 while also adding a record 1.6 million net active customers in the quarter.
These are just a handful of examples of businesses thriving in the face of a black swan. There are several others, and many can be directly linked to a need for more, new and different labels, stickers and pressure sensitive products.
Much the way suppliers to the label industry are adapting to meet the requirements of this new and different business climate, converters can do the same for their customers by suggesting products that their customers may not have realized they either want or need. For example, now is a great time for a label refresh, perhaps as a way to set a brand apart in terms of its health benefits. Pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cleaning and sanitizing products, food and beverage are just a few end use segments where brands might want to emphasize how their products can prevent or mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.
Labels can tell a brand owner’s story, and in the face of the pandemic, can also serve as way to highlight certain specific product aspects.
It’s not just product decoration that can drive a spike to a label business. New executive orders have emerged all over that limit the number of customers that can be inside of a store or restaurant. Schools, as they reopen, are enacting new rules doing the same – limiting building visitors and the number of students per class, or even allowed in restrooms and locker rooms at once. And of course, everywhere you go these days there are announcements and suggestions urging hand washing, social distancing and mask wearing.
Where I live in New Jersey, every storefront has signage posted that requires patrons to wear a mask upon entering. Adjustments have been made to many longstanding requirements. Signs now read, “No shirt, no shoes, NO MASK, no service.” And once you’ve gained entry into a place of business, or any public place for that matter, such as libraries and museums, there are markers everywhere reminding people to stay six feet apart, as well as indicators on the floor and walls measuring the six feet of distance and telling folks where to stand on line. Many of these reminders are printed on pressure sensitive materials that adhere to floors, doors and windows.
Suppliers are helping converters serve these new, niche markets for the new normal. Mactac has announced a new portfolio of interior floor graphic products available for the roll label market. The narrow web floor graphic products can be used for social distancing, safety signage, and more on a wide variety of indoor surfaces, such as standard tile, vinyl linoleum, terrazzo, ceramic tile, smooth sealed concrete and hardwood floors.
In announcing the new portfolio, Sara Damante, senior marketing manager, Mactac Performance Adhesives, said, “For 50 years Mactac has been at the forefront of pressure sensitive adhesive product development for wall, window, floor, and vehicle graphic applications in the wide-format graphics industry, and we are excited to bring our expertise and products to the roll label market,” she says. “Especially now, with the COVID-19 pandemic, we have come to rely on floor graphics for social distancing and other safety signage, and our narrow web format floor graphic products will give roll label customers new opportunities to be full-service providers for their customers.”
The situation is still fluid, and no one can be sure exactly when things will go back to the way they were. So, for now, companies of all types and sizes can benefit from a brainstorming session to see where they can create and grow new black swan markets and products.
Steve Katz is the former editor of Label & Narrow Web and is now a regular contributor. He is focused on helping companies in the label industry share their news and tell their stories. Follow him on twitter @LabelSteve.
